29 January 2026
Safaricom Stock 2026: Buy, Hold, or Sell? Complete Analysis & Price Target
Is Safaricom stock a good buy in March 2026?
🟢 Updated March 21, 2026 — all figures current. Share price KES 30.35. H1 FY2026 results confirmed. Withholding tax corrected to 5% for Kenyan residents throughout.
Safaricom is trading at KES 30.35 — the #1 most traded stock on the NSE over the past three months. The share has already delivered over 100% return from its January 2025 lows, yet net income surged 52.1% to KES 42.78 billion — the highest interim profit in Safaricom’s history. The earnings growth behind the rally is real.
The question for 2026 is not whether Safaricom is a great company — it clearly is. The question is whether KES 30.35 is a fair price to pay for it. This analysis gives you the honest answer.
Safaricom Stock — Key Numbers at a Glance
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current share price (Mar 21, 2026) | KES 30.35 |
| 52-week range | KES 17.10–32.50 |
| YTD gain from Jan 1 | +6.88% |
| Market cap | ~KES 1.22 trillion |
| H1 FY2026 net profit | KES 42.78 billion (+52.1%) |
| EBITDA margin | 49.76% |
| Interim dividend FY2026 | KES 0.85 per share (paid Mar 31, 2026) |
| Dividend yield (estimated full year) | ~7–8% |
| Withholding tax on dividends | 5% for Kenyan residents |
| Full year results | April 30, 2026 |
| Investment rating | HOLD for existing investors / BUY on dips below KES 28 |
What Has Changed Since January 2026
The original version of this article was written in January 2026 with a share price of KES 15 and a price target of KES 18–20. Both targets have been exceeded. Three major updates since then:
1. Record profit confirmed. Net income surged 52.1% to KES 42.78 billion — the highest interim profit in Safaricom’s history, while earnings before interest climbed 34.9% to KES 101.29 billion as margins improved on a more digital revenue mix.
2. Record interim dividend declared. Safaricom lifted its interim dividend to a record KES 0.85 per share for FY2026 — 54.5% higher than last year’s KES 0.55, after posting its strongest half-year profits on record. The interim dividend was payable to shareholders on the register at close of business on February 25, 2026, with payment on or about March 31, 2026.
3. Market valuation milestone. At the intraday peak, Safaricom’s market value briefly crossed US$10.09 billion, making it the only company in Kenya — and in Central and Eastern Africa — to reach that threshold twice, first in 2021 and again in 2026.
What Safaricom Does — Company Overview
Safaricom PLC is Kenya’s dominant telecommunications company operating across five business segments:
M-Pesa mobile money — the crown jewel. Over 32 million active users. Processes more than KES 30 trillion annually — equivalent to approximately 170% of Kenya’s GDP. Commands over 99% of mobile money transactions in Kenya.
Mobile data — now the primary revenue driver, overtaking voice for the first time in FY2025. Growing at 14.6% annually as smartphone penetration deepens and 5G adoption accelerates.
Voice and SMS — mature segment growing at 2% annually. Profitable with minimal marginal cost, but declining as users shift to WhatsApp and OTT services.
Safaricom Home fiber — fastest-growing segment at 28.4% revenue growth. Currently 400,000 connections with potential for 2+ million homes.
Ethiopia operations — Safaricom’s 120 million population market entry. Still loss-making but losses narrowing with a path to breakeven by 2027–2028.
Safaricom distributes its products and services through a dealership network of approximately 2,700 outlets.
Financial Performance — H1 FY2026 Confirmed Results
| Metric | H1 FY2025 | H1 FY2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | KES 28.1 billion | KES 42.78 billion | +52.1% |
| EBITDA | KES 75.1 billion | KES 101.29 billion | +34.9% |
| EBITDA margin | 47.2% | 49.76% | Improving |
| Interim dividend | KES 0.55 | KES 0.85 | +54.5% |
Net income surged 52.1% to KES 42.78 billion, the highest interim profit in Safaricom’s history, while earnings before interest climbed 34.9% to KES 101.29 billion as margins improved on a more digital revenue mix.
The revenue mix shift is the most important long-term signal. M-Pesa and data now account for approximately 70% of total revenue, both growing at double-digit rates. Voice — the historically dominant but declining segment — represents less than 20%. This mix shift means every year Safaricom becomes more profitable per shilling of revenue.
Full year results: Safaricom is going to release the next earnings report on April 30, 2026. This is the next major catalyst — watch for full-year profit, final dividend announcement, and guidance for FY2027.
Dividend Analysis — Corrected for 5% Withholding Tax
Important correction from earlier versions of this article: The withholding tax on dividends for Kenyan resident individuals is 5% — not 15% as previously stated. All calculations below use the correct 5% rate.
FY2026 Dividend Structure
Safaricom declared an interim dividend of KES 0.85 per ordinary share for the financial year ending March 31, 2026. The KES 34.05 billion interim pay is equivalent to 70.8% of last year’s total payout of KES 48.08 billion, signalling higher pay for this financial year.
Safaricom has a policy of paying 80% of its net profits as dividends and has committed to continue with this payout ratio despite substantial growth in borrowings.
If H2 FY2026 profit matches H1’s KES 42.78 billion, full-year profit approaches KES 85 billion. At 80% payout, the full-year dividend could reach KES 2.70–3.00 per share total — a yield of approximately 9% at current prices.
Dividend History
| Year | Total DPS | Yield at Jan price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | KES 1.50 | 8.1% | +7.1% |
| FY2023 | KES 1.55 | 8.0% | +3.3% |
| FY2024 | KES 1.60 | 8.3% | +3.2% |
| FY2025 | KES 1.65 | 8.2% | +3.1% |
| FY2026 interim | KES 0.85 | — | +54.5% vs prior interim |
| FY2026 estimated total | KES 2.70–3.00 | ~9% | +64–82% |
How Much Will You Earn — Corrected Earnings Table
Based on estimated KES 2.70 full-year dividend and 5% withholding tax:
| Shares | Gross dividend | Tax (5%) | Net dividend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 shares | KES 270 | KES 14 | KES 257 |
| 500 shares | KES 1,350 | KES 68 | KES 1,283 |
| 1,000 shares | KES 2,700 | KES 135 | KES 2,565 |
| 5,000 shares | KES 13,500 | KES 675 | KES 12,825 |
| 10,000 shares | KES 27,000 | KES 1,350 | KES 25,650 |
KES 100,000 investment example (3,295 shares at KES 30.35):
- Gross dividend: KES 8,897
- Withholding tax (5%): KES 445
- Net dividend: KES 8,452
- Net yield on investment: 8.45%
Share Price History and What It Tells You
| Period | Price | What was happening |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 peak | ~KES 29.50 | Post-COVID M-Pesa surge |
| 2022 decline | ~KES 25.80 | Ethiopia entry concerns |
| 2023 low | ~KES 14–16 | Ethiopia losses, rate headwinds |
| 2024 average | ~KES 15.40 | Stabilisation, dividend support |
| Jan 2026 | KES 28.35 | Record profit expectations building |
| Feb 2026 peak | KES 32.50 | Record H1 results + record dividend |
| Mar 21, 2026 | KES 30.35 | Post-peak consolidation |
Investors should take note of SCOM’s recent performance, having lost 9% of its value in the past four weeks — a natural pullback after the February 2026 peak of KES 32.50 driven by the record results announcement. This pullback is not a fundamental deterioration — it is profit-taking after a sharp run.
M-Pesa — The Reason to Own Safaricom Stock
M-Pesa is not a product. It is the financial infrastructure of Kenya. Understanding it is understanding the core of Safaricom’s investment case.
Current M-Pesa metrics (FY2025, latest confirmed):
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Active users | 31.2 million | +4.7% |
| Monthly active users | 28.4 million | +4.8% |
| Annual transaction value | KES 31.8 trillion | +12.8% |
| M-Pesa revenue | KES 122.7 billion | +18.2% |
| % of total revenue | 38.9% | Growing |
| Agent network | 278,000 | +5.3% |
M-Pesa revenue growing at 18.2% annually on a base of KES 122.7 billion is exceptional. The growth is driven by lending products — Fuliza generated KES 18.2 billion in revenue, up 24% year on year. Lipa Na M-Pesa merchant payments grew 31% to KES 1.2 trillion in annual volume. International remittances grew 16% to KES 8.9 billion.
Ethiopia M-Pesa launch (target Q3 2026): With only 35% of Ethiopians having bank accounts, the M-Pesa opportunity in Ethiopia could add $200–300 million in annual revenue by 2028 — potentially transformative for the group.
The M-Pesa competitive moat: WhatsApp Payments is the theoretical competitor. In practice, M-Pesa’s 278,000-agent cash-in/cash-out network, 580,000-merchant acceptance footprint, and deep integration with Fuliza and M-Shwari lending create switching costs that no app-only competitor can replicate quickly.
Ethiopia Update — Narrowing Losses, Growing Opportunity
| Ethiopia Metric | Status (Q4 2025) |
|---|---|
| Subscribers | ~6.8 million |
| Population coverage | 48% |
| Annual revenue run rate | ~$145 million |
| EBITDA | -$210 million (loss) |
| Breakeven timeline | Q4 2027 (estimated) |
Ethiopia remains loss-making but the trajectory is improving. Q4 2025 added 1.2 million subscribers — the strongest single quarter since launch. The M-Pesa Ethiopia launch planned for Q3 2026 is the next major catalyst — if it gains 5–10 million users by 2027, it dramatically accelerates the path to profitability.
The long-term case remains intact: 120 million population, 50% mobile penetration versus Kenya’s 120%+, and a first-mover advantage that will be extremely difficult for future entrants to overcome.
Valuation — Is Safaricom Stock Cheap or Expensive at KES 30.35?
At KES 30.35 with record H1 FY2026 profit of KES 42.78 billion, the valuation picture has changed significantly from January.
| Metric | Jan 2026 (KES 15) | Mar 2026 (KES 30.35) | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | ~12.5x | ~14.2x | Fair value |
| Dividend yield | ~8.2% | ~7–9% (FY2026 est) | Attractive |
| Price vs 52-week high | -10.7% | Below Feb peak | Reasonable |
| Market cap | KES 602 billion | KES 1.22 trillion | Re-rated |
At KES 15, Safaricom was clearly undervalued — 18% below NSE telecom peers on P/E. At KES 30.35, the discount has narrowed but not eliminated. At 14.2x earnings with 52% profit growth, Safaricom is fairly valued — not cheap, but not expensive.
The key question: Will H2 FY2026 profit match H1’s KES 42.78 billion? If yes, the full-year P/E at KES 30.35 falls to approximately 7x — genuinely cheap. The next earnings report is April 30, 2026. This date is the most important near-term catalyst.
Safaricom Stock Buy, Hold, or Sell? — Updated Verdict
If you bought below KES 20 — HOLD firmly
You are sitting on 50%+ capital gains plus dividends received. The investment thesis has played out exactly. Hold for the April 30 full-year results. If full-year profit exceeds KES 80 billion, consider holding through to FY2027. If you need to rebalance — sell 30–40% to lock gains, keep the rest for continued dividend income.
If you are buying new at KES 30.35 — BUY on dips, cautious at current price
Safaricom has lost 9% of its value in the past four weeks from the February peak of KES 32.50. This consolidation may continue before the April 30 results. New buyers at KES 30.35 are getting a fairer entry than KES 32.50 but are not getting the exceptional value that existed at KES 14–15. The risk-reward is acceptable but not exceptional.
Buy aggressively: Below KES 28 — yield would exceed 9% on estimated FY2026 dividend Buy comfortably: KES 28–30 — yield 8–9%, fair value entry Hold and wait: KES 30–33 — current range, let April results clarify Reduce position:Above KES 35 — yield compresses below 7.5%, valuation becomes premium
12-month price target: KES 34–40
Base case (60% probability): KES 34–36 — full-year results confirm 80%+ billion profit, dividend upgraded, gradual re-rating Bull case (25% probability): KES 38–40 — M-Pesa Ethiopia launch accelerates, full-year profit exceeds KES 85 billion, P/E expands to 16x Bear case (15% probability): KES 25–27 — H2 FY2026 profit disappoints, Ethiopia losses widen, market sentiment reverses
Risk Factors — What Could Go Wrong
1. Regulatory pressure — medium risk (30–40%) Government M-Pesa fee caps would directly reduce revenue. This risk is real but has been discussed for years without implementation — Safaricom paid KES 48 billion in taxes in FY2025, giving the government strong incentive to keep it profitable.
2. Ethiopia losses persist — medium risk (25%) Every year of $200 million losses drags consolidated results. If H2 FY2026 shows Ethiopia losses widening rather than narrowing, the stock will react negatively ahead of the April 30 results.
3. H2 FY2026 profit disappointment — medium risk (30%) H1 set a very high bar at KES 42.78 billion profit. If H2 falls significantly below this — due to Ethiopia, currency headwinds, or competition — the market will reassess the full-year dividend outlook.
4. Competition — low risk (20%) Airtel Kenya has lost market share from 24% to approximately 20% since 2022. Starlink at KES 6,500 per month is not yet competitive with Safaricom Home at KES 2,999–5,000. WhatsApp Payments remains a watch item but has not materialised as a significant M-Pesa threat.
Safaricom vs NSE Banking Peers — Updated Comparison
| Stock | Price | Dividend yield | FY2025 profit growth | Payout ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safaricom | KES 30.35 | ~7–9% (FY2026 est) | +52.1% (H1) | 80% |
| Equity Group | KES 50 | ~11.5% | +55% | 29% |
| KCB Group | KES 78 | ~9.2% | +11% | 33% |
| COOP Bank | KES 30 | ~8.3% | Strong | 34.6% |
| Stanbic | KES 255 | ~8.8% | Flat | 64% |
Safaricom’s 80% payout ratio is the most generous of any major NSE stock — and uniquely, this is a company policy commitment rather than a one-off decision. The risk of dividend reduction is low unless full-year profit falls dramatically.
The comparison with banks is instructive. Equity Group offers higher yield (11.5%) with stronger profit growth (55%) and a more conservative payout ratio (29%). For pure dividend income with better safety coverage, Equity Group is the stronger 2026 choice at current prices. Safaricom is the choice for investors who want M-Pesa digital economy exposure alongside income.
See our Best Kenyan Stocks 2026 guide for the complete ranking.
How to Buy Safaricom Stock
You need three things: KRA PIN, CDS account, and a broker or investment app.
Fastest route — Mali App or Hisa App: Start with as little as KES 500 via M-Pesa. Registration takes 30 minutes. See our complete How to Buy Safaricom Shares Kenya guide for step-by-step instructions including Mali App, Hisa, and traditional broker options with current fee comparisons.
KRA PIN: Free, five minutes online. See our KRA PIN Kenya 2026 guide.
CDS account: Free to open, five to ten business days. See our How to Invest in NSE Kenya 2026 guide.
Broker fees: Mali and Hisa charge 1.5% — the lowest available. Traditional brokers charge 1.8–2.5%. On a KES 30,000 purchase the difference is approximately KES 90–150.
Cost and Dividend Calculations — Current Prices
Buying KES 10,000 of Safaricom at KES 30.35:
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Shares purchased | 329 shares |
| Brokerage (1.5%) | KES 150 |
| NSE + CDS levies (0.16%) | KES 16 |
| Total cost | KES 10,166 |
| Estimated net annual dividend (5% WHT) | KES 846 |
| Net yield on investment | 8.3% |
Dividend Dates — What to Know for 2026
Interim dividend (already paid): Book closure was February 25, 2026, with payment due on or about March 31, 2026. If you were not on the register by February 25, you did not receive the KES 0.85 interim.
Final dividend (upcoming): The next earnings report is April 30, 2026. The final dividend will be announced with the full-year results. Based on Safaricom’s 80% payout policy and H1 profit of KES 42.78 billion, the final dividend could be KES 1.70–2.00 per share if H2 matches H1 levels.
To qualify for the final dividend: Buy Safaricom shares before the ex-dividend date — expected approximately June 2026, based on the prior year pattern. Exact dates will be confirmed at the April 30 results announcement.
FAQ – Safaricom Stock
Is Safaricom stock a good buy in March 2026?
At KES 30.35 — conditionally yes. The earnings growth is real and exceptional, the dividend policy (80% payout) is among the most generous on the NSE, and the M-Pesa growth story is intact. However new buyers are entering after a 100%+ rally from the 2023–2024 lows. The April 30 full-year results are the next major test. Buy on dips below KES 28 for the strongest entry.
What is the Safaricom price target for 2026?
KES 34–40 over 12 months based on full-year FY2026 earnings confirmation. Base case KES 34–36, bull case KES 38–40 if Ethiopia M-Pesa launch accelerates and full-year profit exceeds KES 85 billion.
What is the correct withholding tax on Safaricom dividends?
5% for Kenyan resident individuals — deducted automatically before payment. Previous versions of this article incorrectly stated 15%. The 5% rate applies to all NSE dividend stocks for Kenyan residents. Non-residents pay 15%.
Does Safaricom pay dividends twice a year?
Yes. An interim dividend after H1 results (typically February) and a final dividend after full-year results (typically July). The FY2026 interim of KES 0.85 was paid March 31, 2026. The final will be announced April 30.
Should I buy Safaricom or Equity Bank?
For pure income yield at current prices: Equity Group at 11.5% yield with 29% payout ratio is the stronger income choice. For M-Pesa digital economy exposure with generous dividend policy: Safaricom at 7–9% yield with 80% payout. Both belong in a well-constructed NSE portfolio for different reasons. See our Equity Bank Dividend 2026 guide.
When are Safaricom full-year FY2026 results?
April 30, 2026. This is the most important date for Safaricom investors in 2026 — final dividend amount, full-year profit, and FY2027 guidance will all be released on this date.
More NSE Investment Guides
- Best Kenyan Stocks 2026 — top 10 NSE picks ranked by dividend and value
- How to Buy Safaricom Shares Kenya 2026 — step-by-step with Mali App, Hisa and broker comparison
- KCB Dividend 2026 — record KES 7.00, book close April 2
- Equity Bank Dividend 2026 — record KES 5.75 after 55% profit growth
- Top NSE Dividend Stocks Kenya 2026 — full yield rankings
- NSE Dividend Calendar 2026 — all payment dates
- How to Invest in NSE Kenya 2026 — open CDS account from KES 5,000
- Understanding Safaricom Ethiopia — complete risk and opportunity analysis
Share price KES 30.35 as at March 17–18, 2026. H1 FY2026 results confirmed November 2025. FY2026 interim dividend KES 0.85 paid March 31, 2026. Full-year results expected April 30, 2026 — update all projections immediately when confirmed. Withholding tax 5% for Kenyan residents confirmed from KRA. This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.